putin is desperate

Putin Is Desperate - Putin hopes to capture all of the eastern Donbas region, but his generals want to create a smarter and more durable front line.

Vladimir Putin seems to be in a dark mood. After months of bad news, his troops are making progress in Donbas and even Boris Johnson admits it is "progressive, slow but - I fear - progress". Global food and energy prices are rising not only because of Western sanctions, but also because of Russia's blockade of the Black Sea and the closure of international pipelines. And Henry Kissinger, a diplomat known for his honest political approach, said Moscow should agree to keep some of its gains in exchange for peace.

Putin Is Desperate

These facts may shock some, but it is not surprising that the Russians are making progress on the ground. And any Kremlin celebration would be misplaced: Russia is still losing, and short-term success will only make Putin look worse.

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There is a lot of news about Russian casualties, but the Ukrainians themselves are suffering and new weapons from NATO cannot reverse the fatigue and resurrect the dead. In addition, Putin's first strategy must be followed, which allows Russian generals to fight as their forces dictate, punishing heavy artillery and ground attacks.

Putin hopes to conquer all of eastern Donbas, but his generals will be more active and want to create a front line. It won't take long for them to use their crimes, and there is no evidence that Moscow will soon be able to collect the men and materials needed for a new one. Instead, the generals hope to use their intermediary advantage to keep the Ukrainians on guard regardless of what the West has to offer.

In other words, Russia's best-case scenario is to keep what they have. But what's next? Since the start of the war, Putin's tone has changed dramatically. Starting on May 9, when he spoke about Russia's Victory Day celebrations, he hinted that it would be a longer and more difficult war - he accused the West of "obfuscation" - then, at least, it's a long war to dig into.

At the same time, he shies away from making tough decisions that would prolong this war. It's classic Putin: when every election hurts, he tries to avoid it.

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Advances in the Donbass, for example, have a long way to go to prevent a Ukrainian attack, and Russian forces are short. This means that in many other regions they have to police angry locals who have resorted to violence and rebellion. As the National Guard, Russia's internal security service, is forced to serve as veterans, this is another burden on the armed forces.

Ukraine has made a lot of progress, but Russian generals are still engaged in peacekeeping operations. There were over 15,000 deaths during this period, and if battle numbers are used today, it can be said that at least 45,000 soldiers were absent from duty due to sickness and disease.

If Putin declared this "special military operation" a real war, he could mobilize reserves. The army could not capture more than 100,000-150,000 soldiers, and they were armed with outdated weapons and haphazard training. However, the newly formed soldiers inevitably arrive on the battlefield and launch another attack.

It may take them three months to prepare for battle, but there may be opposition among the people. So Putin is desperate, reserves are worried, and time is running out to prepare another offensive before the fall.

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Often, Putin's lack of strategic thinking means that short-term gains lead to long-term consequences.

Russia is the worst of both worlds. A leader is too pressed to make tough decisions, but too naive to know when to cut his losses. Credit: Satellite

Note his recent call with Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to lift the embargo on Ukrainian grain exports - but "Western sanctions must be lifted". In a sense, this is an opportunity for him to present himself as the answer to rising food prices that are causing famine in the West and Africa.

But there is a Russian concession that restricts grain in the Black Sea. In the process, it undermines one of the successes of Russian (and Chinese) rhetoric in the Global South: blaming starving nations on Western sanctions.

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It's also a sign that while some Russian commentators say they can't stand Western food price hikes, the Kremlin knows they can't force the West to back down despite the pain.

On the contrary, Western sanctions are hurting the Russian economy. Economic warfare is not quick, but even if sanctions are lifted tomorrow, their effects will linger for years – even decades. It took Putin 20 years to rebuild his wasted military in Ukraine. With the economy shrinking by more than a quarter this year and access to Western technology limited, it will take time to recover from the damage.

It also meant that if he tried to keep the territories he conquered, they would not have the money to rebuild their destroyed cities. What was spent there should pay off in the regions of Russia that felt the pressure of the economic crisis.

Putin is not a military expert because he decided to fight this war. Just by looking at the progress cards, his desire to win this project made him think things were going well. They don't exist. Although he likes to compare himself to the statesmen of Great Russia, the last ruler, Nicholas II, is gaining popularity. Tsar Nicholas saw World War I as an opportunity to assert himself and his rule and found himself leading his country into a war it could not win. In this action he lost himself and his palace.

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Likewise, Putin may despair that some major victory is just around the corner. With "one more push," the Ukrainians would agree to his terms, and the West would refuse to help them.

Russia is the worst of both worlds. A leader is too pressed to make tough decisions, but too naive to know when to cut his losses.

The war is now ending. There is no sign that the Ukrainians - despite what Kissinger says - are willing to make the big concessions that Putin is still asking for. Indeed, after the threat of assassination of Bucha and the extraordinary decision to protect Mariupol, there is no doubt that Volodymyr Zelensky can promise them for his current popularity.

Putin is unwilling to allow his legacy to be preserved and a circle of friends and people who ignore the damage he has done to Russia and the Russian people. There will be more casualties on the battlefield, more grief and anger at home, more grief before the elite know it has fallen.

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In the words of a senior official who separated his family outside of Russia: "Everyone knows that this war is a great danger, except those who cannot stop it."

But Putin is not alone in recognizing that this is a long and difficult road. We live in a time of peace, and as the West unites in defending Ukraine and punishing Putin, there are signs of "Ukraine fatigue" behind the scenes.

The West should not be fooled by the same illusion that a final push, whether an economic decision or some other strategic decision, will quickly end the war. Instead, we should show solidarity, provide military and economic support to Ukraine, and prepare for economic damage and political problems as best we can. Wars have even economic and political costs.

Professor Mark Galeotti is the director and author of Beacon Intelligence

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